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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 56

Miami Dolphins 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(5:30) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 45 yards to DET 11, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-34-S.Perry.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.00 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 56, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 17, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model