4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 81

Detroit Lions 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(3:48) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 61 yards to MIA 20, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 19-J.Grant to MIA 39 for 19 yards (44-J.Reeves-Maybin; 35-M.Killebrew).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.49 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 81, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.34 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 38, worth -2.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP