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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 55

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(1:17) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.34 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 55, worth -2.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model