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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 8 at the 62

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(8:04) 9-L.Cooke punts 55 yards to HOU 7, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.69 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 62, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model