Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 93

Houston Texans 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

(7:14) 8-T.Daniel punts 61 yards to JAX 32, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-D.Westbrook to HOU 47 for 21 yards (57-B.Scarlett).

The Three Options

GO -3.44 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.46 EP
64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 93, worth -5.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model