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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 26

Houston Texans 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(10:27) 7-K.Fairbairn 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-8-T.Daniel.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.94 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 36, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model