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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 48

Houston Texans 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 8-T.Daniel punts 32 yards to JAX 16, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.82 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 48, worth -2.65 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 14, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP