Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 12 at the 86

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Houston Texans 20

(12:43) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to HOU 39, Center-45-M.Overton. 21-T.Ervin to HOU 39 for no gain (17-D.Chark).

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.16 EP
67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 86, worth -5.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model