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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 44

Houston Texans 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 8-T.Daniel punts 29 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

The Three Options

GO -0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +0.95 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 44, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -1.24 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.22 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 12, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP