4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 44

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Carolina Panthers 14

What Actually Happened

(9:59) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to CAR 1, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.35 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.34 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP