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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 66

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Carolina Panthers 21

What Actually Happened

(2:31) 5-J.Flacco up the middle to BAL 35 for 1 yard (90-J.Peppers; 54-S.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model