4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 48

Carolina Panthers 24 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(8:09) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to BAL 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.10 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 48, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model