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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 26

Carolina Panthers 24 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(3:03) 9-G.Gano 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +2.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.51 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 36, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP