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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 24

New York Jets 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 2-J.Myers 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.14 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened
  • 82% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 34, worth -2.09 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP