Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 65

Chicago Bears 7 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to NYJ 26, Center-48-P.Scales. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 35 for 9 yards (84-B.Braunecker). PENALTY on NYJ-39-I.Campbell, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYJ 34.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.31 EP
67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 65, worth -3.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model