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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 6 at the 72

New York Jets 3 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(2:45) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to CHI 29, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-51-B.Copeland.

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.30 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 72, worth -4.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 30, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model