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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 55

Chicago Bears 7 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(:33) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.81 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 55, worth -1.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model