4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 48

Chicago Bears 7 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(12:07) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.11 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 48, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.70 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 14, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP