4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 23

Chicago Bears 14 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(2:03) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky left end pushed ob at NYJ 22 for 1 yard (54-A.Williamson).

The Three Options

GO +2.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.48 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 23, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
  • 84% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 33, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model