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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 58

Chicago Bears 24 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 48 yards to NYJ 10, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +0.56 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 58, worth -2.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 18, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model