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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 46

New York Jets 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 40-T.Cannon left guard to CHI 43 for 3 yards (98-B.Nichols).

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.51 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.94 EP
KICK -1.85 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.06 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model