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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 13 at the 13

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(7:46) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Elliott 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.50 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 13, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 23, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model