Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 85

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 6

What Actually Happened

(1:54) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 51 yards to JAX 34, Center-45-R.Lovato. 13-R.Greene to JAX 42 for 8 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill, 37-T.Sullivan).

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.83 EP
58% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 85, worth -4.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model