4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 20 at the 85

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Jacksonville Jaguars 12

What Actually Happened

(3:22) (Punt formation) 1-C.Johnston punts 60 yards to JAX 25, Center-45-R.Lovato. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 48 for 23 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill).

The Three Options

GO -3.33 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 85, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 43, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model