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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 64

Jacksonville Jaguars 18 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(4:26) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles scrambles left end ran ob at JAX 40 for 4 yards (58-J.Hicks).

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.22 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 64, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 22, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model