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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 52

Jacksonville Jaguars 18 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(3:41) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete short left to 10-D.Moncrief.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +1.84 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 52, worth -1.98 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model