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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 33

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(6:56) (Field Goal formation) 4-J.Lambo 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.08 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 33, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.01 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 43, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP