Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 16 at the 86

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 9-L.Cooke punts 53 yards to PHI 33, Center-45-M.Overton. 16-D.Carter to PHI 33 for no gain (53-B.Brown). PENALTY on PHI-32-R.Douglas, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 33.

The Three Options

GO -3.10 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.63 EP
72% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 86, worth -4.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model