Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 66

Detroit Lions 7 – Seattle Seahawks 21

(12:34) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to SEA 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 26 for 10 yards (44-J.Reeves-Maybin).

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.82 EP
69% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model