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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 53

Detroit Lions 7 – Seattle Seahawks 21

What Actually Happened

(3:23) 6-S.Martin punts 28 yards to SEA 25, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.83 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 53, worth -2.90 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP