Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 12 at the 57

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(9:19) 4-M.Dickson punts 39 yards to DET 18, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-59-J.Martin. PENALTY on DET-44-J.Reeves-Maybin, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at DET 18.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.72 EP
69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 57, worth -3.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model