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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 97

Seattle Seahawks 28 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(2:18) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson right end to SEA 12 for 9 yards (34-C.LeBlanc).

The Three Options

GO -3.14 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.38 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 97, worth -5.72 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (114 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 53, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.12 EP