Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 82

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 12

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to LAC 32, Center-69-T.Ott. 20-D.King to LAC 34 for 2 yards (24-S.Luani). PENALTY on LAC-31-A.Phillips, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 34.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.46 EP
60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model