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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 8 at the 33

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 12

What Actually Happened

(5:55) 11-S.Janikowski 51 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.31 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.99 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model