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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 19 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(12:39) 5-D.Jones punts 38 yards to SEA 28, Center-47-M.Windt. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 34 for 6 yards (24-T.Williams; 48-N.Dzubnar).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.20 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 24, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model