Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 72

Los Angeles Chargers 19 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 5-D.Jones punts 42 yards to SEA 30, Center-47-M.Windt. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 30 for no gain (42-U.Nwosu; 47-M.Windt). PENALTY on SEA-36-A.King, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at SEA 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.73 EP
59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 72, worth -4.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model