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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 63

Los Angeles Chargers 19 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(8:00) 5-D.Jones punts 38 yards to SEA 25, Center-47-M.Windt. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 23 for -2 yards (11-G.Davis; 31-A.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.55 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 63, worth -3.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model