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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 30

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 25

What Actually Happened

(4:25) (Shotgun) 27-M.Davis up the middle to LAC 22 for 8 yards (37-J.Addae, 20-D.King).

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
What Happened
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.01 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model