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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 6

Seattle Seahawks 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 25

What Actually Happened

(1:53) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 81-N.Vannett for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.03 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 6, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model