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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 19 at the 47

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(7:31) 5-J.Townsend punts 23 yards to SF 24, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-55-M.Lee.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.05 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.50 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model