Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 11 at the 70

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

(5:58) 5-B.Pinion punts 64 yards to LV 6, Center-86-K.Nelson, downed by SF-33-T.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -1.67 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.16 EP
66% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.62 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model