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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 21

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 3

What Actually Happened

(:21) 9-R.Gould 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.17 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.79 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 31, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model