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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 15 at the 26

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – San Francisco 49ers 31

What Actually Happened

(13:26) 8-D.Carlson 45 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.92 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +0.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model