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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 71

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – San Francisco 49ers 31

What Actually Happened

(9:49) 2-A.McCarron up the middle to LV 29 for no gain (99-D.Buckner).

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.92 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.79 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model