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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 19

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:34) 8-D.Carlson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.53 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.10 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 19, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model