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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 9 at the 51

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – San Francisco 49ers 34

What Actually Happened

(1:51) 5-J.Townsend punts 36 yards to SF 15, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 13-R.James.

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.25 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 51, worth -1.39 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model