Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 68

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – San Francisco 49ers 7

(5:12) 5-J.Townsend punts 40 yards to SF 28, Center-47-T.Sieg. 13-R.James pushed ob at SF 34 for 6 yards (55-M.Lee).

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.69 EP
59% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 68, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model