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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 59

Baltimore Ravens 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(13:11) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 43 yards to PIT 16, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-R.Switzer ran ob at PIT 25 for 9 yards (37-J.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.65 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP