4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 41

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(9:34) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to BAL 35 for 6 yards (22-J.Smith).

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.05 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 41, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model