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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 51

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – Baltimore Ravens 6

What Actually Happened

(1:48) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to BAL 15, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.62 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 51, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -1.42 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model